.
No corrections, no adjustments - that’s it![1]
.
Similarly, the Winning Trick Count for each of the two hands which make up the partnership total is quite simply their individual holding of honour cards (A’s; K’s, and Q’s) added to their individual holding of trumps minus three.
.
The basic version of the Winning Trick Count, which is defined above results from the very simple conclusion that on a large fraction of auctions there is really no requirement for the conventional evaluation procedures such as the Losing Trick Count which are regularly used, since the trick-taking prospects can be forecast much more easily and usually more accurately by considering just two features of the partnership hands. Namely
.
Their combined strength, as measured by their joint holding of honour cards (or, as we shall see below, their High Card Point Count).
.
Their trumping opportunities, as measured by the trumps, which are left over after taking three rounds to establish the suit (hence, the combined holding of trumps minus six).
.
Despite the fact that this seemingly rudimentary approach to hand evaluation takes no account of the quality of the honour-cards; nor of the evident fact that on some deals tricks may also be made by virtue of a second long suit, or by extra trumping opportunities such as may be created by voids, or singletons, it nevertheless provides it provides an unusually accurate assessment of the strength of an outstandingly broad range of partnership bridge hands.
Moreover,
given the ease and the speed with which such basic Winning
Trick Countevaluations
can be made for both pairs of hands on any exposed deal, simply by glancing
at the card distribution and counting the trumps and honour cards, it
is extremely simple to check their accuracy and to compare them with those
of more conventional assessment procedures.
But, of course, the reality of playing bridge is that the scope for such assessment is much more restricted. The only cards that you can see are those in your own hand and any further judgements that you make about your trick-taking prospects, and those of the opposition must then be based on such additional information as does emerge during the auction.
This will regularly be incomplete and imprecise. Nevertheless, if you wish to compete, you do have to make an assessment and it is this requirement, which presents the real challenge for the Winning Trick Count, just as it does for any other evaluation procedure that you may wish to use.
On the other hand, as we shall see in the detailed account of theWinning Trick Count which follows, it has two distinctive features which significantly ease this task and which enable you to make an assessment on a much wider range of deals than would otherwise have been possible:
.
-The first, that it can be used just as effectively in the wide range of auctions where it is easier to make an estimate of your combined point count rather than your honour card strength (see Chapters 4 & 5).
.
-The second, that it frequently enables you to exploit such information as the bidding of the opposition may provide on their point-count or honour-card strength to allow you to make an assessment of your own trick-taking prospects.
.
We will go on to consider
the merits of this quite unusually simple assessment procedure at some
length but if we begin, for example by considering the
N/S hands on the deal below, we can see that they have the balance of strength
- 24 points - and an excellent prospect of making game with their nine-card
heart suit. And on the basis of their Winning Trick Count, as
definedabove, we also
see that their total of sevenhonour-card tricks
(made up in this case of 3A's; 2K's, and 2Q's); plus their three trump
tricks (a nine-card suit
minus six) provides us with the correct estimate of ten tricks.
.
North dealer – N/S Vulnerable
.
|
|
NORTH
S J63
H AJ95
D
AK2
C
A104
|
|
WEST
S K754
H 1072
D
743
C
J875
|
|
EAST
S AQ982
H 3
D
J865
C
KQ9
|
|
|
SOUTH
S
10
H KQ864
D
Q109
C
632
|
|
And
similarly on the
following deal where E/W now have the balance of strength - 23 points -
and the likelihood of making game with their nine-card heart suit, we see
that their Winning Trick Count
of seven honour-card tricks
(made up in this case of 2A's; 2K's and 3Q's); plus three trump
tricks (a nine-card suit minus
six) provides us with the correct estimate of ten tricks.
.
North dealer – E/W Vulnerable
.
|
|
NORTH
S
A1095
H K64
D
643
C
J108
|
|
WEST
S KQ7
H AQ109
D
AQ2
C
K72
|
|
EAST
S J843
H J8732
D
J8
C
43
|
|
|
SOUTH
S
62
H 5
D
K10975
C
AQ965
|
|
It
really is straightforward. Just add the honour-card
tricks
(the number of A’s; K’s, and Q’s in the two hands) to the trump
tricks
(the total number of trumps minus six).
As a measure of its applicability to a very much wider range of deals than the two simple examples above, we will move on, in due course, to an extensive comparison of its performance with that of the Losing Trick Count. We will see that this detailed consideration of over 500 contracts showed that the Winning Trick forecast was within one trick of the right result around 90% of the time, whereas the Losing Trick score - although still impressive - was nearer to 80%.
But, in the meanwhile if you feel doubtful about the simplicity and accuracy of the evaluation procedure, just try it out yourself with a few ordinary deals. In which case, you should also find that the very basic Winning Trick Count, will regularly be within one trick of the right result.
On the other
hand you may find that you are somewhat less successful if you base your
analyses on very strong hands or more especially on the latest examples
in your newspaper. Since these are usually singled out because they are
interesting rather than ordinary they are more likely to be an illustration
of the fact that a significant fraction of bridge hands are idiosyncratic
and hence less amenable to such a simple evaluation procedure
But, of course, the reality of bridge is that it is precisely this element of idiosyncrasy, which makes it such an interesting game to play. And which also ensures - given that the Winning Trick Count is just as subject to the vagaries of such real card distributions as all of the other assessment procedures - that the estimates will be incorrect by more than one trick on around one deal in ten.
Indeed, it is this quite inevitable measure of uncertainty (and at times quirkiness), which establishes the most significant boundary to the accuracy, and - in the final analysis - the value and the scope of such bridge hand evaluation. Yet, it is usually accorded only cursory attention in much of the literature on this subject.
I shall return to the issue of uncertainty in PART 2.
However, since my aim at this stage is to demonstrate that the Winning Trick Count does, in fact, provide a singularly effective evaluation procedure for the majority of the more typical hands that you are likely to encounter when you play bridge, let me move on to Chapter 2, which describes its second distinctive attribute - its unusually broad scope.